28 Mart 2011 Pazartesi

Talking Libya in London

As the Libyan rebels race along the coast towards Tripoli, foreign ministers from 35 nations are gathering in London to discuss what to do next. At least, I think that’s what they are doing. Talking to participants in the London conference, it isn’t entirely clear what the agenda is. Formally, they are establishing a “contact group” of 35 nations that can monitor and discuss the Libyan conflict. Informally, it seems to me there are several other goals.

1. Get a huge number of flags outside the room: The idea is to convey the message that this is a massive international effort, and that the “international community” is squarely behind this intervention.
2. Disguise the fact that, so far, this is an American-led and Nato-run operation: It is important to the Americans that this meeting is taking place in London, not Washington. Hillary Clinton will be attending, but will not be presiding. It is also important to the French – who are uncomfortable with the fact that this is now a Nato-led operation – that this is not taking place at the headquarters of the western alliance. They much prefer the “broad international effort” image. The reality, however, is that after this London meeting, the operation will effectively be handed over to Nato.
3. Think about what happens next: Surprisingly enough, this seems to be really quite low down the agenda. But with the Libyan rebels (or “insurgents” as some are now trying to re-brand them) advancing fast, somebody better start thinking fast. Certainly, the Nato pretense that the western allies are not supporting the rebel military offensive is becoming increasingly ludicrous. This fact alone means that the West will be implicated in whatever follows the fall of Colonel Gaddafi.
Generally, however, the rapid military changes on the ground have perked the mood up, among the delegates assembling in London. When the conference was convened, there was a fear that the military situation might turn into a stalemate. Now the British and French insistence that outside interventions could tip the balance decisively against Gaddafi is looking like a better judgement. But who knows how things will be looking tomorrow, when the talks get underway?
Tomorrow’s discussions will take place in Lancaster House in London, which I remember from my childhood, as the location for the long negotiations on Zimbabwean independence. Not a particularly encouraging precedent.

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